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Gold Demand Report Q3 2025 Explained by an Analyst
A personal anecdote
I still remember the moment in my early career when a veteran bullion trader leaned over his desk and said: “It’s not the price, it’s the story.” He showed me how the same ounce of gold could tell two different market tales depending on why someone bought it. Fast-forward a decade, and the Q3 2025 demand numbers for gold reinforce that very idea—this isn’t just “gold going up” — it’s about evolving demand dynamics.
As a high-authority specialist in precious-metals research, here’s my comprehensive breakdown of the latest report from the World Gold Council on global gold demand in Q3 2025. I’ll walk you through the key findings, critique what they really imply, and provide my professional prediction for what comes next. Then I’ll finish with three immediate actions you should take if you’re invested in or thinking about gold.
What the Q3 2025 report reveals
According to the WGC’s Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2025 report, global gold demand rose 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tone's, the highest quarterly total in their series. The value of that demand jumped dramatically — up 44% to roughly US$146 billion in Q3.
Several key sector-moves stand out:
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Investment (bars, coins, ETFs) was the major driver — bar & coin demand reached ~316 t, and ETF/physical-backed flows surged ~134% year-on-year.
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Jewellery demand, by contrast, continued to decline — volumes down ~19% y/y to ~371 t, albeit value rose because of high prices.
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Supply increased modestly — total supply up ~3% y/y, largely driven by mine production (+2%) and some recycled gold (+6%).
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The outlook section flags that investment demand may keep growing, jewellery demand remains under pressure, central bank demand remains elevated.
In other words: the story behind the numbers is shifting. Historically gold demand was dominated by jewellery and industrial uses; now it’s increasingly about strategic investment and reserve assets.
My expert analysis – what the numbers really mean
From my vantage point, a few deeper observations arise:
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The investment case is overtaking the consumer case.
The robust flows into bars/coins and ETFs signal that more buyers are acquiring gold not for adornment but as a macro hedge. That fits with years of seeing portfolio-allocations shifting toward “safe-haven” thinking. Jewelry down, investment up – a structural shift. -
High prices are squeezing jewellery volumes but boosting value.
While people are spending more per gram on jewellery, volume demand is shrinking. Elevated gold prices have made jewellery less affordable in many markets, particularly where gold has cultural or gifting roles. That suggests upside for value but downside for volumetric growth in that segment. -
Supply side is supportive but not explosive.
Mine production and recycling increased only modestly. This means the demand surge has not been met by a supply surge — implying tighter conditions if demand continues high. That can feed into upward price risk. -
Macro-drivers remain potent: weak dollar, low rates, inflation fears.
The outlook statement highlights how a weaker US dollar, expectations of interest-rate cuts, and inflation/stagflation risks support gold. From my years of watching gold markets, these are the familiar triggers for major surges. -
But caution is warranted: jewellery decline and bifurcated demand pose risk.
The drop in jewellery demand means that a big part of the traditional gold market is under stress. If investment flows moderate or macro conditions improve (stronger dollar, higher real yields), the upside may be less dramatic than the hype suggests.
My prediction for the gold market
Based on this data and my decade of market-experience, here’s my forward-looking take:
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Over the next 12-18 months, I anticipate investment demand will continue to dominate, especially youth and institutional allocation into gold via ETFs and digital platforms.
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Jewellery volumes will remain under pressure globally until gold prices stabilise or decline enough to restore affordability — meaning for jewellery-centric markets this will be a slower recovery.
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If we hit a macro-shock (e.g., sharp inflation spike, currency crisis, banking sector stress), then we may see another leg up in gold—potentially pushing new all-time highs.
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Conversely, if the US dollar strengthens significantly or real yields rise, we could see a correction: investment flows slow and jewellery picks up but volumes remain weak — resulting in flat or modest gold price growth.
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Ultimately, for diversified portfolio-allocations, I believe gold will hold value as a strategic ballast rather than a high-flyer asset in the near term — meaning allocate for stability, not speculative upside.
Three immediate, actionable steps you should take
Given this outlook, here are three concrete actions you can implement right now:
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Review your allocation to physical vs. paper gold
– If you hold jewellery as a “gold investment”, re-evaluate — consider shifting some into bars, coins, or physically-backed ETFs which match the current demand trends.
– If you have no gold allocation, consider initiating a modest exposure (~5-10 % of portfolio) with a view toward long-term stability, not short-term gains. -
Mind your timing and entry point
– Since gold has already reacted strongly, now is a time for selective entry rather than aggressive exposure.
– Use draw-down opportunities (if prices dip) or look for incremental purchases (e.g., monthly averages) to build position rather than attempting to “time the top”. -
Align gold with your macro view and risk-profile
– If you believe inflation will spike, the dollar will weaken, or major geopolitical risks are ahead — lean toward higher gold weighting and perhaps more physical holdings.
– If you believe the economic cycle will stabilise, with rising yields and a stronger dollar — moderate your gold weighting and consider alternative assets (platinum, dividend equities, etc.).
– And, regardless of allocation: monitor not only the gold price, but what’s driving demand (ETF flows, central bank buying, jewellery sentiment) as these are changing structural variables.
Link to original report: “Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2025” – World Gold Council World Gold Council+1
Disclaimer:
This blog post is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Before making any financial or investment decisions, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or investment professional. The author and publisher assume no responsibility for any consequences of relying on this content.
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